Fire ExiaTier 2
at G3 DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.3%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
43.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1293
· range 1187–1399
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1269
Q3 1393
1446
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
